The more I think about this, the more it seems that Florida still has a realistic shot at going to the Chick-fil-A Bowl. Obviously the Gator Bowl is the favorite to land the Gators — and pair them with Ohio State — but the Chick-fil-A Bowl is real possibility.
It could come down to a choice between Clemson vs. Florida or Florida State vs. Auburn. My guess is that FSU-Auburn would be the Chick-fil-A Bowl’s pick, but there are always unexpected selections. Based on their performance last season, the Gators should not have had any shot at getting into the Outback Bowl, but that committee jumped at the chance to host Urban Meyer’s final game with Florida.
Here’s what it hinges on: No. 5 Virginia Tech plays No. 21 Clemson in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday (8 p.m., ESPN).
The Hokies are favored by more than a touchdown, even though they lost to Clemson 23-3 in October.
If Clemson wins, the Tigers go to the Orange Bowl. That makes Virginia Tech the obvious choice for the Chick-fil-A Bowl. The Chick-fil-A Bowl would probably take No. 14 South Carolina or Auburn.
But let’s say Virginia Tech wins. If that happens, here are the Chick-fil-A Bowl’s options:
ACC: No. 21 Clemson (9-3), No. 25 Florida State (8-4), Virginia (8-4), Georgia Tech (8-4).
SEC: No. 14 South Carolina (10-2), Florida (6-6), Vanderbilt (6-6), Auburn (7-5), Mississippi State (6-6).
The Chick-fil-A Bowl chooses second in the ACC and fifth in the SEC. It has almost no chance of getting No. 12 Georgia (10-2). It also would not have to dip so low into the ACC to consider teams like North Carolina State (7-5) and Wake Forest (6-6).
According to the bowl’s official website, these are the teams it is thinking about:
ACC: Clemson, Virginia Tech.
SEC: Auburn, Florida.
[It also says if Clemson and Virginia Tech both go to BCS bowls, which could happen if Clemson wins, it would look at: Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Wake Forest]
Here are the three most likely match-ups:
Florida State vs. Auburn: If the Chick-fil-A Bowl passes on Clemson, the best remaining ACC team would be Florida State, which played in this bowl last year. In recent history, the Chick-fil-A Bowl had consecutive appearances by Clemson (1996 and ’97), Tennessee (2002 and ’03) and Miami (2004 and ’05), so a repeat invitation for the Seminoles is not out of the question.
With Florida State from the ACC, the Chick-fil-A Bowl would be choosing between South Carolina and Auburn. The Gamecocks probably will not be available that late in the process and they played FSU in the game last year (one repeat team would be fine, but an exact rematch of last year’s bowl seems unlikely). That would set up for an Auburn-FSU game.
Clemson vs. Florida: If the Chick-fil-A Bowl takes Clemson, it would not take South Carolina or Auburn because that would be a rematch of a regular-season game. Auburn and Clemson also play next year in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Classic in Atlanta. Out of Florida, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, the Gators probably would be the most attractive option.
South Carolina vs. Georgia Tech or Virginia: The Chick-fil-A Bowl already has said publicly it does not think South Carolina will be available. However, if it somehow has a shot, maybe it would take the Gamecocks. That would seem to rule out Clemson and Florida State. The best choices from the ACC would be Virginia or Georgia Tech. Neither would seem to create a better match-up for television ratings, and the Chick-fil-A Bowl already is sold out, so there would be no advantage in capitalizing on Georgia Tech’s local fan base.
If you’re the Chick-fil-A Bowl, which of those three games looks best?